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Economic Trends · Jul 22nd, 2025
What this video’s about:
In this episode of The Market Share, Chief Investment Officer Paul Gifford and Senior Portfolio Manager Jason Cooper break down a turbulent second quarter, the impact of the newly passed “Big Beautiful Bill,” and what investors can expect in the second half of the year. Together, they discuss market volatility, sector rotation, and why all-time highs may still signal opportunity.
A Roller Coaster Second Quarter
Early in the quarter, markets dipped before climbing higher, only to face another drop of nearly 20% mid-quarter. There were two separate all-time stock market highs, one in the first quarter and another in the second. Jason describes it as “a bit of a roller coaster ride,” with significant swings driven by political, economic, and geopolitical events.
Investors wondered how the Trump administration’s policies might affect growth and trade. Sentiments were divided on the long-term implications of “Liberation Day” and often unpredictable tariff discussions. And renewed unrest in the Middle East increased uncertainty even more, causing wild swings in the market.
Sector Performance: A Tale of Two Quarters
The quarter was also marked by sharp sector rotation. In the first quarter, high-valuation names struggled, particularly in technology, consumer services, and consumer cyclicals. But by the end of the second quarter, those same sectors turned into big winners.
“It truly was a tale of two quarters,” Jason says, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift when uncertainty begins to clear.
The Big Beautiful Bill Brings Certainty
When the Big Beautiful Bill was signed on July 4, the market reaction was immediate. Volatility eased in both equities and fixed income, and businesses gained more confidence to plan for the future.
“The market appreciates certainty,” Jason notes. “It helps both small businesses and individuals make better investment decisions.”
Inflation remains a challenge, but recent numbers show improvement. That opens the door for possible Federal Reserve action later in the year, which could free up additional capital and investment opportunities.
All-Time Highs: Should Investors Worry?
With the markets hitting fresh highs again, many investors wonder if they’ve missed their chance. Jason reassures viewers that history says otherwise.
“Today’s highs might be tomorrow’s lows,” he says. Even when markets are at peak levels, data shows that returns over one, three, and five years remain solid. In other words, long-term investors still have opportunities ahead, even when markets feel expensive.
Conclusion
The second quarter brought dramatic market swings, but things began to stabilize after the Big Beautiful Bill passed. Inflation is still a concern, but recent improvements and the possibility of Fed action later this year could support more growth in the months ahead.
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