Advice
Holiday shopping looks different than it did even a few years ago. Sales start earlier. Shoppers compare more prices. And people think harder about every dollar they spend. John Talbot, senior lecturer at the IU Kelley School of Business, recently sat down with Inside Indiana Business to discuss what this means for Indiana businesses and the communities they serve.
Retailers are heading into what could be the largest holiday season on record. The National Retail Federation expects consumers to spend more than $1 trillion nationwide. That headline sounds bold, but Talbot says the real story sits beneath the surface. Even as spending rises, shoppers remain cautious and intentional.
Halloween Is the New Black Friday
For many shoppers, the holiday season no longer starts with Black Friday. Talbot points out that October now marks the real beginning of holiday shopping, with Halloween acting as a turning point. As people switch to fall décor and seasonal purchases, they also begin thinking ahead to gifts. That mindset pulls spending earlier on the calendar.
This shift didn’t happen overnight. Retailers have watched the season stretch backward for years, with promotions launching sooner and ads appearing earlier. By the time Thanksgiving arrives, many shoppers have already checked items off their lists.
For Indiana businesses, a longer season brings both opportunity and pressure. It rewards early planning, steady messaging, and a clear focus on what customers value most.
A Careful Consumer at Every Income Level
One of Talbot’s most important observations centers on shopper behavior. He describes today’s buyer as a “two-headed consumer.” Higher-income households still have room to spend, while others track every dollar closely. Yet both groups share a common trait: caution.
Even shoppers with flexible budgets pause more often. They compare prices, wait for deals, and consider whether a purchase feels worthwhile. This mindset shapes the 2025 holiday shopping trends more than spending totals alone.
For retailers, that means success depends less on flashy promotions and more on clear value. Shoppers want to know why a product matters and whether it will last.
Inflation Expectations Still Shape Decisions
Talbot notes that while tariffs and inflation may not hit shelves as sharply as some expected, the expectation of higher prices still influences behavior. Many shoppers assume costs will rise, even when increases remain modest.
That expectation changes how people spend. Shoppers focus on total dollars, not just how many items they buy. According to Talbot, much of the projected growth this season reflects higher prices per item rather than increased volume.
For Indiana businesses, transparency matters. Clear pricing, honest explanations, and consistent value help build trust during a season when buyers already feel uneasy.
Online Growth Continues, but Stores Still Matter
Online shopping continues to grow, especially through mobile devices. Talbot points to the pandemic as a turning point that pushed retail habits years into the future. Still, he stresses a key fact: most holiday shopping will happen in physical stores.
That insight matters for Indiana communities. Local stores remain gathering places where shoppers can see products, ask questions, and connect with people they trust. This creates a real opportunity for locally owned businesses to deliver personal service that big retailers often can’t match.
Why Indiana Looks a Little Different
Holiday shopping trends don’t play out the same way in every state. Indiana brings a mix of mid-sized cities, small towns, and rural communities, which keeps local retail relevant. Many shoppers still value nearby stores where relationships matter.
Another key factor is Indiana’s strong connection to college sports. Apparel and merchandise tied to IU and Purdue remain popular gift choices. Fans know who they’re shopping for and where their loyalty lies, which makes team gear both easy and meaningful.
These habits point to a practical mindset. Indiana shoppers tend to value usefulness and longevity over impulse buys. Gifts that feel personal or serve a purpose often win out over trends. That approach mirrors the cautious but intentional behavior Talbot sees nationwide.
For local businesses, the lesson is clear. Listening to customers matters more than chasing national trends. Adjusting hours, highlighting popular local products, or offering services customers ask for directly can make a real difference. When businesses stay in tune with their communities, they build loyalty that lasts beyond the holiday season.
What This Means for Small Businesses
For small businesses, the 2025 holiday season rewards preparation, flexibility, and close attention to customers. With shopping starting earlier and stretching longer, success no longer hinges on one big weekend. Instead, it depends on steady engagement over time.
Early planning helps businesses manage inventory, staffing, and promotions with less stress. A longer season also allows owners to spread out marketing efforts, test what works, and adjust as customer behavior becomes clearer.
Blending digital tools with personal service creates an added advantage. Simple online ordering, clear product details, and easy pickup options save customers time. Pairing that convenience with in-store help, like gift advice or quick problem-solving, builds trust that larger retailers often struggle to match.
Cash flow and staffing also benefit from a longer season. Instead of relying on a short surge, businesses can pace expenses and manage hours more carefully, supporting employees while planning with greater confidence.
A Season of Realistic Optimism
John Talbot’s outlook balances optimism with realism. The numbers point to a strong season, but the behavior behind them tells a deeper story. Shoppers plan earlier, think harder, and expect honesty from the businesses they support.
For Indiana businesses and communities, that mindset creates opportunity. Those who listen, adapt, and lead with trust stand to gain the most from the 2025 holiday shopping season, one careful, meaningful purchase at a time.