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Economic Trends · Apr 14th, 2026
What this video’s about
In this episode of The Market Share, Paul Gifford, Chief Investment Officer at 1st Source Bank, is joined by Matt Lowe from the investment team to discuss recent market volatility and what it means for long-term investors.
With markets reacting to geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices, many investors are asking the same question: Is this normal? Paul and Matt walk through how often market pullbacks occur, what recovery typically looks like, and how disciplined investors can respond.
Market volatility is more common than it feels
Recent headlines and market swings can make volatility feel unusual. In reality, it is a regular part of investing.
Matt explains that markets experience a 5 percent pullback about three times each year and a 10 percent decline roughly once per year. These drawdowns feel uncomfortable, but they are part of how markets function over time.
The pattern is clearer when viewed over a longer horizon. Despite recessions, financial crises, and geopolitical conflicts, markets have continued to grow and compound.
Recoveries can come quickly and unpredictably
A key concern during downturns is how long recovery will take. History shows that while declines can be sharp, recoveries often follow.
Matt points to recent examples:
- In 2020, markets fell 34 percent in just 33 days, then recovered within six months
- In 2022, markets declined about 25 percent over the year, but reached new highs by the end of 2023
The timing and speed of recoveries are difficult to predict. What history does show is that staying invested through uncertainty has often led to better outcomes than trying to step in and out of the market.
The cost of trying to time the market
Periods of volatility often tempt investors to move to cash and wait for clarity. While that approach seems logical, it is difficult to execute in practice.
Matt explains that markets tend to have their strongest gains during or near periods of decline. Missing just a handful of those days can significantly reduce long-term returns.
For example:
- A $1,000 investment over 30 years could grow to about $17,000 if fully invested
- Missing the 10 best days cuts that value to just over $8,000
- Missing the 50 best days can result in losses
The challenge is that those strong days are unpredictable and often occur when uncertainty is highest.
Staying disciplined during downturns
While the message is not to remain passive, it is to stay intentional.
Matt highlights a few steps the team is taking during this period:
- Rebalancing portfolios to maintain alignment with long-term goals
- Tax-loss harvesting to offset gains from prior years
- Maintaining a disciplined, goals-based approach to investing
These strategies allow investors to respond thoughtfully rather than react emotionally.
Conclusion
Market pullbacks are unsettling, especially during periods of geopolitical tension. But history shows that volatility is a normal part of investing, and recoveries often follow.
The key is to stay focused on long-term goals, avoid emotional decisions, and remain disciplined through changing market conditions.
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